Is Georgia Our Century's Czechoslovakia?
Is Georgia Our Century’s Czechoslovakia?
Last week Russia began an invasion of its sovereign neighbor Georgia. Once upon a time when communism ruled Russia and it was known as the USSR, Georgia was one of those states united under communism. When that central authority collapsed, they chose to go their own way and have done so very successfully. President Saakashvili, a man educated here in the US, took a real slash and burn approach to corruption, firing the entire police force for example, and has developed a free, pro-western, democratic government. That freedom has produced a growing economy and encouraged investment from many places in the world. They are our ally, part of the Partnership for Peace program under NATO, a member of the UN, CIS and OSCE and they contributed several thousand troops to our efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, the third largest contingent in fact. They have been fighting and bleeding next to us, have looked to our example and counted us among their best friends. Chances are, they will soon cease to exist.
I expect that Russia will reabsorb Georgia into their sphere by the time the conflict is over or, at the very least, install a pro Russian government. For what reason did Putin and Co. begin this invasion? They said that a small part of Georgia (Ossetia) wanted to be part of Russia again. Hmmmm. Isn’t that what Hitler said about the Sudetenland? Next thing we knew, Czechoslovakia was gone and the Jews started going to concentration camps.
Unlike Hitler, Putin is not motivated by racist ideology (that we know of) nor is he looking for breathing room for his people. There are fewer and fewer Russians all the time. Putin wants Russia to regain its superpower position in the world, to have real control and influence. Demographically, Russia is a dying country. Economically, communist rule destroyed it. The breakup of the Soviet Union was the disintegration of an empire. We celebrated its fall and encouraged democracy and capitalism in a place that has never known either. But we were hopeful. Yeltsin was our hero, democracy was flourishing in many of the old satellites, the cold war was over and we could all release our collective breath knowing that Armageddon had been averted.
Following the Great War or “The War to End All Wars” Germany was defeated and the Weimar Republic sprang up from the ashes. It was weak and the threat of conflict was low on the continent. National pride is a powerful force, however, and cannot be restrained forever. Just as Hitler rose from the German republic, Putin has risen in Russia. Just as Hitler was admired for his work in the early years of his tenure, so Putin received praise from President Bush. Both Putin and Hitler had one goal in mind and that was the reestablishment of their respective countries as premier powers on the world stage.
For the former KGB folks that run the place now, the power and influence of the USSR were the good ol’ days and they are looking for a way to recapture that. Militarily, while growing formidable once again, Russia doesn’t yet have the cash to develop its armed forces to compete with us on that front. But today, that is not where the real power lies.
If the last year has shown us anything, control of energy is power. Russia, like the United States, has vast energy resources. Unlike the United States, Russia has no problem exploiting those resources and exporting them to the West. For example, Germany now receives forty percent of its energy from Russia. Do we really think Germany is free to criticize Russia when they know that Putin could just turn off the spigot if he so chose? It is not only her own resources Russia is interested in either. By befriending Iran and other middle eastern countries, Mother Russia is bringing more and more of the world’s energy resources under her wing.
Which brings us back to Georgia. Little Georgia has a healthy supply of oil and coal and more importantly, a pipeline that goes through it that heads to the Mediterranean from the Caspian Sea and carries a full one percent of the worlds oil, one percent that while in Russia’s backyard is not under her control. Competition is not something those former KGB thugs appreciate in the Kremlin. They had made plans in the past to destroy the pipeline and when they didn’t work out decided the direct approach was best. And now the Georgians ask, where is the US? Where are our western allies? We are sitting on our hands because we have been silenced by our dependencies.
But there is more to this than our addiction to foreign oil or our need to sell debt to fund our welfare programs. Ultimately Russia’s acts should signify the death knell to a foreign policy assumption we have operated under for decades. Since at least the Reagan era, we have believed that totalitarian regimes would fall if only they opened their markets. If we exported a free market economy and encouraged capitalism oppressed people would be encouraged to seek political power and eventually overthrow their totalitarian regimes. We made the equation that economic freedom equals political freedom and that totalitarian regimes and capitalism are incompatible.
Experience now demonstrates that neither of these may be true. The desire for political self determination may follow economic self determination but what the West has been exporting is consumerism. Look at China, still a very authoritarian regime by any standard. Its people have raised their standard of living, they are awash with our cash, they are buying cars and TVs and other consumer goods. In fact we look at their emerging market as a lucrative opportunity. And it would appear that many of the Chinese people are more then happy to enjoy the fruits of economic prosperity without the pesky responsibility of political involvement. Russia is the same way. Our assumption that economic freedom and political freedom go hand in hand is no longer valid and the sooner we understand this, the sooner we can stop hoping for an change that may never come and start dealing with countries like China and Russia the way they are.
Both nations have their eye on their neighbors and ultimately, see no real downside to doing as they please. China invaded Tibet and is engaging in a systematic elimination of that population. They still have their eye on Taiwan and it is only a matter of time before they act. With China, however, we have some leverage. They need us at this point; if our market closes, they collapse. But they hold a large portion of our foreign debt as well so the leverage works both ways. We are locked in an uneasy embrace for now but in the future as China prospers and finds other markets, including its own, our influence will rapidly diminish.
With Russia, we have no such leverage. This incident clearly demonstrates that. Putin will do what he wants regardless of the protests from the US or the UN. What will the consequences of his invasion be? Some people will condemn his actions and hound him for a while. So what? If they try anything substantial, he’ll turn off the oil, drive up the price and people will quickly quiet down. He also knows that in a year no one will care any more. That's the way it seems to go these days. And do not think that China and Iran are not watching. There is no question that Putin is putting his thumb in our eye by destroying a pro western democracy and US ally. If we allow him to get away with it, what is to stop Iran from completing its nuclear program and China from moving on Taiwan? Nothing. Totalitarian regimes are not known for their self restraint. As Neville Chamberlain found out, if free peoples do not stand up for one another, they will be picked off one by one. If being an ally of the US means so little, we will soon find ourselves very much alone.
Last week Russia began an invasion of its sovereign neighbor Georgia. Once upon a time when communism ruled Russia and it was known as the USSR, Georgia was one of those states united under communism. When that central authority collapsed, they chose to go their own way and have done so very successfully. President Saakashvili, a man educated here in the US, took a real slash and burn approach to corruption, firing the entire police force for example, and has developed a free, pro-western, democratic government. That freedom has produced a growing economy and encouraged investment from many places in the world. They are our ally, part of the Partnership for Peace program under NATO, a member of the UN, CIS and OSCE and they contributed several thousand troops to our efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, the third largest contingent in fact. They have been fighting and bleeding next to us, have looked to our example and counted us among their best friends. Chances are, they will soon cease to exist.
I expect that Russia will reabsorb Georgia into their sphere by the time the conflict is over or, at the very least, install a pro Russian government. For what reason did Putin and Co. begin this invasion? They said that a small part of Georgia (Ossetia) wanted to be part of Russia again. Hmmmm. Isn’t that what Hitler said about the Sudetenland? Next thing we knew, Czechoslovakia was gone and the Jews started going to concentration camps.
Unlike Hitler, Putin is not motivated by racist ideology (that we know of) nor is he looking for breathing room for his people. There are fewer and fewer Russians all the time. Putin wants Russia to regain its superpower position in the world, to have real control and influence. Demographically, Russia is a dying country. Economically, communist rule destroyed it. The breakup of the Soviet Union was the disintegration of an empire. We celebrated its fall and encouraged democracy and capitalism in a place that has never known either. But we were hopeful. Yeltsin was our hero, democracy was flourishing in many of the old satellites, the cold war was over and we could all release our collective breath knowing that Armageddon had been averted.
Following the Great War or “The War to End All Wars” Germany was defeated and the Weimar Republic sprang up from the ashes. It was weak and the threat of conflict was low on the continent. National pride is a powerful force, however, and cannot be restrained forever. Just as Hitler rose from the German republic, Putin has risen in Russia. Just as Hitler was admired for his work in the early years of his tenure, so Putin received praise from President Bush. Both Putin and Hitler had one goal in mind and that was the reestablishment of their respective countries as premier powers on the world stage.
For the former KGB folks that run the place now, the power and influence of the USSR were the good ol’ days and they are looking for a way to recapture that. Militarily, while growing formidable once again, Russia doesn’t yet have the cash to develop its armed forces to compete with us on that front. But today, that is not where the real power lies.
If the last year has shown us anything, control of energy is power. Russia, like the United States, has vast energy resources. Unlike the United States, Russia has no problem exploiting those resources and exporting them to the West. For example, Germany now receives forty percent of its energy from Russia. Do we really think Germany is free to criticize Russia when they know that Putin could just turn off the spigot if he so chose? It is not only her own resources Russia is interested in either. By befriending Iran and other middle eastern countries, Mother Russia is bringing more and more of the world’s energy resources under her wing.
Which brings us back to Georgia. Little Georgia has a healthy supply of oil and coal and more importantly, a pipeline that goes through it that heads to the Mediterranean from the Caspian Sea and carries a full one percent of the worlds oil, one percent that while in Russia’s backyard is not under her control. Competition is not something those former KGB thugs appreciate in the Kremlin. They had made plans in the past to destroy the pipeline and when they didn’t work out decided the direct approach was best. And now the Georgians ask, where is the US? Where are our western allies? We are sitting on our hands because we have been silenced by our dependencies.
But there is more to this than our addiction to foreign oil or our need to sell debt to fund our welfare programs. Ultimately Russia’s acts should signify the death knell to a foreign policy assumption we have operated under for decades. Since at least the Reagan era, we have believed that totalitarian regimes would fall if only they opened their markets. If we exported a free market economy and encouraged capitalism oppressed people would be encouraged to seek political power and eventually overthrow their totalitarian regimes. We made the equation that economic freedom equals political freedom and that totalitarian regimes and capitalism are incompatible.
Experience now demonstrates that neither of these may be true. The desire for political self determination may follow economic self determination but what the West has been exporting is consumerism. Look at China, still a very authoritarian regime by any standard. Its people have raised their standard of living, they are awash with our cash, they are buying cars and TVs and other consumer goods. In fact we look at their emerging market as a lucrative opportunity. And it would appear that many of the Chinese people are more then happy to enjoy the fruits of economic prosperity without the pesky responsibility of political involvement. Russia is the same way. Our assumption that economic freedom and political freedom go hand in hand is no longer valid and the sooner we understand this, the sooner we can stop hoping for an change that may never come and start dealing with countries like China and Russia the way they are.
Both nations have their eye on their neighbors and ultimately, see no real downside to doing as they please. China invaded Tibet and is engaging in a systematic elimination of that population. They still have their eye on Taiwan and it is only a matter of time before they act. With China, however, we have some leverage. They need us at this point; if our market closes, they collapse. But they hold a large portion of our foreign debt as well so the leverage works both ways. We are locked in an uneasy embrace for now but in the future as China prospers and finds other markets, including its own, our influence will rapidly diminish.
With Russia, we have no such leverage. This incident clearly demonstrates that. Putin will do what he wants regardless of the protests from the US or the UN. What will the consequences of his invasion be? Some people will condemn his actions and hound him for a while. So what? If they try anything substantial, he’ll turn off the oil, drive up the price and people will quickly quiet down. He also knows that in a year no one will care any more. That's the way it seems to go these days. And do not think that China and Iran are not watching. There is no question that Putin is putting his thumb in our eye by destroying a pro western democracy and US ally. If we allow him to get away with it, what is to stop Iran from completing its nuclear program and China from moving on Taiwan? Nothing. Totalitarian regimes are not known for their self restraint. As Neville Chamberlain found out, if free peoples do not stand up for one another, they will be picked off one by one. If being an ally of the US means so little, we will soon find ourselves very much alone.
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